← All courses
4 · Advanced
Decisions Under Uncertainty
A course for managers, team leaders, project managers and business owners. You will learn to separate the quality of a decision from its outcome, estimate in probabilities, use base rates and the outside view, run a pre-mortem, lead meetings where uncomfortable views actually get heard, and learn systematically from your own decisions. Every lesson includes a practical exercise you can try with your team straight away.
5 lessonsabout 72 minutesquizzes and interactive gamesFree · after sign-up
Course contents
- 1Thinking in probabilitiesA good decision can turn out badly and a bad one can turn out well. How to tell them apart, and how to estimate better.15 min
- 2Base rates and the outside viewWhy projects almost always take longer than planned, and how comparing with similar cases helps fix that.14 min
- 3Pre-mortem and devil's advocateHow to find a plan's weak spots before they show up – and give people a safe space to name them.14 min
- 4Groupthink in meetingsHow to run a meeting so that dissenting voices are heard and the team uses what its members actually know.15 min
- 5Decision journals and reversible decisionsHow to learn systematically from your own decisions, and how to tell when to decide fast and when to decide carefully.14 min